Archive | Market Reports

Market Report: November 2018

Who knows! Trade sanctions/war (China-USA), midterm elections, Non-acceptance of EU country (Italy v Brussels) budgets, no Brexit agreement, possible leadership challenges, declining stock markets, downgrading of EU credit ratings to one level above a junk bond! Plus, the threat of UK/EU recession. All lead to global uncertainty and volatility. For sure the US dollar is fairing the best, but this softens some increases at export for some commodities and firms’ prices on import for others. Of course, if Brexit gets sorted, the sun comes out and Sterling could very well rebound dramatically against both Euro and US dollar …

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Market Report: October 2018

Currently, US trade negotiations, whether it is the imposition of tariffs on seeds from China or a re-writing of the Mexican-USA-Canadian trade agreement, impact on global currency markets. If this was not enough, the continued impasse in Brexit negotiations, and political and financial instability in Italy, keep the markets uncertain of direction …

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Market Report: September 2018

The pound is in deep shadow due to the lack of progress on Brexit, and the increasing likelihood of a hard Brexit. Meanwhile the US dollar appreciates due to a further potential escalation in the trade wars with China, and the suggestion that the USA may withdraw from the WTO and Canada does not need to be in the NAFTA. With a potential leadership challenge possible, and certainly strong criticism due at the Conservative party conference at the end of this month, there is potential for Sterling to weaken further…

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Market Report: August 2018

In the UK, Parliament is on holiday, Brexit uncertainties and lack of direction grow, and to some extent this is reflected in EU members if not in Brussels. A hard Brexit will be bad for business in EU too. The pound has nowhere to go whilst these uncertainties remain. The Euro is guided to some extent by an expected fall in GDP, and the Brexit shadow …

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Market Report: July 2018

The increase in global risk, and looming trade wars appears to be good for the US Dollar which has strengthen against both the Euro and Sterling in recent days. Major depreciation of the Yuan (China) where concerns over US protectionism are still current. However, the impactor of this is to at least off set some market increases locally when prices are converted to dollars …

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Market Report: June 2018

The focus has been split between the inevitable Brexit scenario and lack of clarity of trade arrangements after March 2019, the G7 conference that ended badly and increased the threat of trade wars, and the historic summit in Singapore on Tuesday. In between political turmoil continues in Italy, and their possible future in the Euro and even the EU. Despite this the ECB is clearly indicating it wishes to stop its asset purchasing scheme. Otherwise EU industrial production is increasing slightly along with inflation …

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Market Report: May 2018

US dollar strength and continued uncertainty over Brexit dominate the FX markets currently. US/China trade sanctions are being watched carefully as the two countries try to resolve this issue. In the UK the possibility of interest rate increases has receded, and this has contributed to Sterling’s slide. The Euro has lost momentum after a slowdown in growth figures, although declared as temporary by Draghi. The question therefore remains as to when the EU economy will ‘normalize’ and this time frame seems to be moving ever backwards …

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Market Report: April 2018

With Chemical attacks in Syria, poisoned Russians in Salisbury and an escalating trade war between USA & China, forecasting currency movements is even more difficult than usual, but with the USA in the centre of most issues, the US dollar is suffering most. The uncertainty is firming the oil price too, as repercussions from this region would seem possible. The Turkish lira, Russian Rubel are all falling and with China accused of devaluing the Yuan as a weapon in the trade war battles. There is some speculation that the EU will now soon end its quantitative easing program permitting EU interest rates to rise. But at present this is still rumour, not fact.

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Market Report: March 2018

The weak US$ has impacted on most export prices in past weeks, but obviously the opposite impact is the more favorable rates for conversion into Euro’s and Sterling. Otherwise the markets are somewhat starved of news. Speculation around Brexit talks, and Trump administration auction of $ 250 billion of US government bonds and who has bought them. Of course, the endless chain of resignations, and speculation around the administration also adds gossip to market tendencies.  

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Market Report: February 2018

Since the beginning of 2018 the US$ has faired badly and both Sterling and the Euro have made strong gains. This is partly due to other regions hinting at rate rises to match the US treasury, hence taking potential forward strength out of the dollar. Weakening inflation in UK, non-approval of US budget by congress, […]

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