Archive | Market Reports

Market Report: May 2018

US dollar strength and continued uncertainty over Brexit dominate the FX markets currently. US/China trade sanctions are being watched carefully as the two countries try to resolve this issue. In the UK the possibility of interest rate increases has receded, and this has contributed to Sterling’s slide. The Euro has lost momentum after a slowdown in growth figures, although declared as temporary by Draghi. The question therefore remains as to when the EU economy will ‘normalize’ and this time frame seems to be moving ever backwards …

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Market Report: April 2018

With Chemical attacks in Syria, poisoned Russians in Salisbury and an escalating trade war between USA & China, forecasting currency movements is even more difficult than usual, but with the USA in the centre of most issues, the US dollar is suffering most. The uncertainty is firming the oil price too, as repercussions from this region would seem possible. The Turkish lira, Russian Rubel are all falling and with China accused of devaluing the Yuan as a weapon in the trade war battles. There is some speculation that the EU will now soon end its quantitative easing program permitting EU interest rates to rise. But at present this is still rumour, not fact.

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Market Report: March 2018

The weak US$ has impacted on most export prices in past weeks, but obviously the opposite impact is the more favorable rates for conversion into Euro’s and Sterling. Otherwise the markets are somewhat starved of news. Speculation around Brexit talks, and Trump administration auction of $ 250 billion of US government bonds and who has bought them. Of course, the endless chain of resignations, and speculation around the administration also adds gossip to market tendencies.  

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Market Report: February 2018

Since the beginning of 2018 the US$ has faired badly and both Sterling and the Euro have made strong gains. This is partly due to other regions hinting at rate rises to match the US treasury, hence taking potential forward strength out of the dollar. Weakening inflation in UK, non-approval of US budget by congress, […]

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Market Report: December 2017

Brexit dominates the €/£ situation and will continue to do so for sure. Each currency fluctuates on specifics, whether it is a relatively well received UK budget, or pressure for a more defined plan for EU quantitative easing, on political uncertainty in Germany. We would fully expect the currency to continue in current range through December …

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Market Report: November 2017

A fairly stable month on the FX market, some ups and downs, but generally currencies have settled to where they started the month. In the UK strong growth figures bring an interest rate rise closer, whist Brexit negotiations, or lack of, add nervousness …

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Market Report: October 2017

The pound has fared well over the last month, due to stronger signals regarding interest rate hikes, and positive data on employment etc. But going forward it will continue to respond to progress in the Brexit negotiations and inflation rate figures …

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Market Report: September 2017

Both US and EU data are strongly positive at present, with the US winning slightly and thus strengthening against the Euro. The North Korean missile situation is probably hampering the US dollar somewhat too, and this seems likely to continue for some time. In the UK stalemate over Brexit talks, anxiety about potential labour shortages […]

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Market Report: August 2017

The period has been dominated by US dollar weakness as the political turmoil, and lack of progress continues in America. Combined with generally good economic data emerging from the Eurozone it has resulted in the Euro rallying significantly against the Dollar. Sterling has also done well despite lacklustre news against the dollar, but slipped slightly verses the Euro.

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Market Report: July 2017

Sterling re-established itself at levels against the US Dollar that were last seen prior to the result of the UK General Election a month ago, touching 1.30 briefly at the close of June. The reason for the about turn on Sterling were the comments made by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who, from a week earlier had said that an interest rate hike was unlikely which had led to a selloff in the pound, to hawkish comments that the Bank would start to reduce Quantitative Easing and that they would need to manage inflation = interest rate increase?

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