The ‘Trump effect’ is having a very positive impact on the US dollar at present, as the executive orders do appear to, at least in the short term, provide a stimulus to the US economy and the Dow has responded in a corresponding manner. However, we are at the beginning of the ‘honeymoon’ and the USA is now downgraded by the Economist Intelligence Unit, to a ‘flawed democracy’ with declining trust and increasing inequality, leading to populist politicians …
Author Archive | Andy Connor
US Dollar strength has pretty much dominated the last month, and with data continuing in a positive tone from the USA, it seems an absolute dead cert that the Fed will raise interest rates in the states in December as planned. In the UK, the Autumn statement was well received, despite a significant gap in the public finances, but encouraged by plans to invest in UK infrastructure, and a settling of sentiment that ‘life after Brexit’ will continue!
Sterling down 4% again this past month against both € and $, is for our UK clients masking some favourable market movements. The Eurozone is bolstered by the roaring economy of Germany, that continues to support the zone, whilst the divergence from other countries challenges ECB policy and complicates the EU way forward …
A firmer tone is entering most markets now as we approach harvest. This should be fully expected since we have been at historic lows for most items. A mixture of poorer weather and farmers looking to alternate better paying crops, after the low prices, seem to be the main drivers.
All we can really state is volatility, with perhaps more Euro weakness than some anticipate, and this may well impact on the Euro/USD relationship too. We are seeing unexpected firmness in some organic seeds ranges at present, so would suggest cover is taken through until the end of 2016, and into new crop arrivals into the UK/EU. With conventional seeds generally at low points in historical terms, we do feel prices are more likely to increase than decrease, so urge buyers to cover what they can.
Brexit dominates Sterling at present and will obviously continue to do so, until after 23rd June, when it is sure to move somewhere. Between now and then, expect volatility against US$ and €. The euro is trading at 3 month lows, and with deflation still a strong risk, and virtually zero interest rates, the focus is likely to switch to encouraging bank lending to boost exports & inflation.
We are pleased to advise that the UK office of Unicorn Ingredients has just achieved BRC Global Standard for Agents & Brokers.
Unicorn’s own Frank Horan was once again in the news as he contributed to an article in April’s edition of Out of Home Magazine, highlighting the recent trend and benefits of seeded and speciality breads.
Following on from last month’s report, the US$ weakness that was missing after Yellen’s statement in interest rate policy has started to impact along with good UK GDP figures. So we see Sterling at a high point of the last three months. Similarly the US$ has weakened against the Euro to its lowest level since June 2015, and the Eurozone appears to be shrugging off recession, having increased its GDP to pre-recession levels.
Unicorn Ingredients has extended its operations in China and India with two key new professional positions. Unicorn maintains offices in China and India to handle its import and export operations. In China, Han Jia Jia has joined the company in the role of China Quality Assurance. This is a technical role focusing on producer control, ensuring standards are met, compliance with relevant audits and that the product quality is assured.